In a move that, for investors, was like Christmas in July, Spotify executives announced on Monday they were finally raising prices for premium subscription plans in most major markets around the world.
But just like Christmas, chief executive Daniel Ek told shareholders during a call discussing Spotify’s second quarter results on Tuesday, the benefits of those price hikes will not arrive until December — or the fourth quarter.
Investors’ disappointment with executives’ underwhelming forecast and the quarter’s soaring expenses showed in the company’s share price, which was down 14% just after noon in New York on Tuesday, following the release of the company’s second quarter earnings.
Spotify reported second quarter revenues rose 11% to €3.18 billion ($3.51 billion) on strong growth in monthly active users and premium subscribers, but the operating loss in the quarter soared 27% to €247 million ($272.7 million) as a result of laying off some 800 employees and cutting programming and expenses in its podcast division. While those expenses are projected to fall to €45 million ($49.7 million) in the third quarter, Spotify forecast that total revenue will only inch up to €3.3 billion ($3.64 billion) with a net gain of about 4 million premium subscribers for the period.
Beginning this week, Spotify’s premium individual plan in the United States and more than 50 other markets will cost $10.99 a month, while the premium duo plan will cost $14.99 a month, the premium family plan will cost $16.99 a month and the premium student plan will cost $5.99 a month.
Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan estimates that raising the price individual subscriptions alone could produce as much as €9 billion ($9.91 billion) of gross profit in 2027 — up from a base expectation of €6.3 billion in 2027 gross profit — and could lead to a 173% positive impact on the company’s stock.
However, Spotify chief financial officer Paul Vogel struck a cautious tone, saying that he expects “a ramp-up in [profitability] margins” in 2023 based on projections for a 30% year-over-year increase in ad revenue and continued subscriber growth.
“Our data would suggest that historical price increases have had minimal impact on growth. But given the breadth of this change…there is some conservatism baked into our outlook for [the third quarter],” Vogel said on a call with investors. “We anticipate further rev growth acceleration in Q4 from Q3 on a currency-neutral basis due to a full quarter benefit from price increases.”
Vogel said that through the 50-some price increases Spotify launched in the past few years, it has observed positive results and very few customers closing accounts as a result.
“Obviously, this is the biggest one we’ve done to date,” Ek advised. “You should all look at it as a tool in our toolbox. But the overall goal is [on a] per-market basis grow our revenue, and we are trying to grow it at 20%.”
https://www.billboard.com/pro/spotify-stock-falls-14-percent-price-hike/