In the past year, the Latin music industry transitioned from a singles-driven market to an albums-focused world, with both new and established artists crafting cohesive sets. The Latin Grammy for album of the year has historically prioritized daring concepts and artistry above popularity when deciding the winner, and while legacy acts have historically dominated the category, recent honorees such as Rosalía tend to return for encores. And Karol G’s triumph in 2023 with her commercial blockbuster, Mañana Será Bonito, may now allow for ultra-popular albums to take home the ultimate artistic prize.

Come Sept. 17, 10 nominees will be announced — here are five of the most likely.

Young Miko, att. (The Wave Music Group)

In the world of reggaetón, Miko is an outlier: blonde, petite and openly gay. For a genre steeped in machismo, it’s a remarkable flip of the script. The album balances her party-girl persona with rap lyrics that aren’t afraid to put others in their place with effectively eloquent punches, having fun without ever becoming gratuitous. Plus, Miko has good taste on her side, tapping Jowell & Randy for an old-school reggaetón touch.

Fonseca, Tropicalia (Sony Latin)

Fonseca’s Tropicalia is a labor of love, designed to elevate the artistry of tropical music with its rich palette. The Colombian singer-songwriter introduced his new oeuvre with last year’s “Si Tu Me Quieres,” which won best tropical song at the Latin Grammys and features bachata star Juan Luis Guerra singing Fonseca’s pop-infused brand of vallenato. That accordion-tinged sound is the foundation of an album full of poignant moments, but Fonseca also expands: He collaborates with Gilberto Santa Rosa and Chucho Valdés on a beautiful Cuban bolero, with Alex Cuba on a contemporary song and with Colombian salsa stalwarts Grupo Niche on a jazz-tinged salsa, all united by his ability to make fans swoon with music designed for the dancefloor.

Kany García, García (5020 Records)

García has twice been nominated in this category, but the third time may be the charm with an album that expands and redefines the scope of the traditional Latin singer-songwriter. Her work has twice won her best singer-songwriter album, and her songsmith qualities shine again in her melodic lines and eloquent yet colloquial lyrics. Autobiographical opener “García,” for instance, is a master class in storytelling in under three minutes. But García also digresses, going with gusto into Mexican music territory with Eden Muñoz, Christian Nodal and Carín León on three riveting tracks. “We’re in constant evolution, and as an artist, I love that I can insert what I’m going through in each album I make,” she previously told Billboard.

Peso Pluma, Éxodo (Double P Records)

Peso Pluma continued his hit-making campaign with Éxodo, his second top five album on the Billboard 200. But unlike its predecessor, Génesis, which won the Grammy this year for best Regional Mexican music album, Éxodo is a double album highlighting the two sides of Peso. Side one is full of Mexican music featuring several collaborations with artists of his generation, including Junior H, Tito Double P and Luis R Conríquez; side two is devoted to urban and pop, featuring bilingual collaborations with Quavo and Rich the Kid. While exploration of many genres is a mainstay of Latin music today, it is rarely in these two directions, and much less with this success. And though Génesis is also eligible for this award given its release date, Billboard’s bet is on the newer, more adventurous Éxodo. It’s to be noted that Peso was not nominated in any category at the 2023 Latin Grammys, an omission that can be rectified this time around.

Shakira, Las Mujeres Ya No Lloran (Sony Latin)

At 47 years old, Shakira refused to be quietly scorned, releasing her retribution of an album, Las Mujeres Ya No Lloran, following a cheating scandal and public split from Gerard Piqué. Instead of wallowing on the full-length, Shakira gets even, famously proclaiming she makes her own money on “Shakira: Bzrp Music Sessions, Vol. 53,” which won song of the year at the 2023 Latin Grammys. The album is filled with lyrics that double as social media fodder, but it’s also clever and artistic, placing a wickedly funny song like “Puntería” with Cardi B alongside such achingly vulnerable tracks as “Acróstico” and “Ultima.” Backed by an impressive array of collaborators that also includes Karol G, Rauw Alejandro and regional Mexican groups Grupo Frontera and Fuerza Regida, Shakira has managed to stay current and return to the top on her own terms. Should she win, this would be her second album of the year trophy, following her 2006 triumph with Fijación Oral, Vol. 1.

This story will appear in the July 20, 2024, issue of Billboard.