The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated August 26), Wallen’s “Last Night” is just three more weeks at No. 1 from tying the Billboard Hot 100’s all-time record – but his position is growing more precarious, thanks to growing hits from Luke Combs and Taylor Swift, and a runaway viral hit from Oliver Anthony Music.  

Morgan Wallen, “Last Night” (Big Loud/Mercury/Republic): Wallen secured his 16th week at No. 1 this week (chart dated Aug. 19) with “Last Night,” moving the song into a three-way tie with Mariah Carey and Boyz II Men’s “One Sweet Day” and Luis Fonsi and Daddy Yankee’s Justin Bieber-featuring “Despacito” for the second-longest reign atop the Hot 100 in chart history, and the longest for any unaccompanied artist. From there, it’s just three weeks away from matching “Old Town Road” (by Lil Nas X featuring Billy Ray Cyrus; 19 weeks in 2019) for the all-time mark.  

However, “Last Night” continues to slip in its footing, as the song again falls in all three chart factors this week – down 11% to 59.6 million radio airplay audience impressions, down 2% to 26.3 million streams and down 22% to 5,000 downloads in the Aug. 4-10 tracking week, according to Luminate. Its numbers are still impressive – and it even rebounds to No. 1 on Streaming Songs this week, with Travis Scott’s Utopia song entries receding in their second frame – but it’s no longer totally out of reach for the songs beneath it.  

Oliver Anthony Music, “Rich Men North of Richmond” (DistroKid): Two weeks ago, you might not have heard of West Virginia singer-songwriter Oliver Anthony, but chances are pretty good he’s made your radar since, as his “Rich Men North of Richmond” has taken off with a velocity rarely seen for new artists. After going viral on social media and earning endorsements from conservative-leaning public figures such as Matt Walsh, Laura Ingraham and John Rich – as well as backlash from prominent critics who view its pro-working class but anti-welfare message as hypocritical and problematic – the song has improbably launched itself into the crowded race for the Hot 100’s No. 1 spot.  

“Rich Men,” which is officially credited to Oliver Anthony Music, jumped to the top of the iTunes chart on Friday, and since officially arriving on streaming services over the weekend, has risen to the top three on both Spotify and Apple Music’s daily tallies. Though its radio play is minimal, if its sales and streams totals stay that robust, Anthony’s breakout hit will certainly be a contender to topple “Last Night” at No. 1 – and as debate over the song and its creator continues rising to a fever pitch, it’s unlikely to fall off anytime too soon.  

Taylor Swift, “Cruel Summer” (Republic): A rising tide lifts all boats, and the good ship “Cruel Summer” has benefited over and over again from spikes of interest in Taylor Swift the past few months. Most recently, it’s been the (temporary) end of her Eras Tour – which wrapped up the final U.S. dates of this current leg in Los Angeles last Wednesday (Aug. 9) — and the concurrent announcement of her upcoming 1989 (Taylor’s Version) that have once again sent Swifties scurrying to streaming services. 

“Cruel Summer” doesn’t come from 1989 – rather, from Lover, two albums later, in 2019 – but it doesn’t seem to matter much: Swift’s streams are up across her whole catalog, and “Summer” in particular has been rising, topping Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart for the first time on Monday (Aug. 14). Fans also perhaps seem to sense that the song is within reach of No. 1, as sales of “Summer” rose 85% last week to 7,000.

With airplay also still growing – the song climbs 5-3 on Radio Songs this week – “Summer” is currently performing at its peak so far. Whether it will be enough to both pass a fading “Last Night” and fend off a surging “Rich Men North of Richmond” remains to be seen.  

Luke Combs, “Fast Car” (River House/Columbia Nashville/Columbia): Prior to the debut of “Rich Men,” Combs’ Tracy Chapman cover seemed to have the inside track for the No. 1 spot, as the song right below “Last Night” on the Hot 100 since the beginning of July. Perhaps sensing that the top spot was now within its grasp, Combs’ team released the official live version of “Fast Car” — previously available only as a YouTube video – to all streaming services on Friday (Aug. 11). 

Will it still have a chance to reach No. 1 next week? Potentially, but its numbers have also been trending in the wrong direction, with both its streams and sales declining last week – though its airplay continues to rise, with the song hitting the Pop Airplay top 10 for the first time. It will need another big jump in airplay, as well as a rebound in streams and possibly sales, to have a real chance of becoming Combs’ first No. 1 next week.  

IN THE MIX 

Olivia Rodrigo, “Bad Idea Right?” (Geffen/Interscope): In a less-packed week, we might be talking about the second single from Olivia Rodrigo’s upcoming album Guts – which debuted on Friday — as more of a contender for the top spot, as the song ranked No. 1 on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart for most of the week. But “Bad Idea Right?” has already started to fade a little on streaming, hasn’t yet been officially promoted to radio and isn’t selling as well as predecessor (and radio focus track) “Vampire” — without the CD release that single had – so it will likely have to settle for being the Hot 100’s second-highest debut this week.  

Barbie: The Album (Mattel/Water Tower/Atlantic): As the phenomenon that is Barbie continues to envelop the globe, it has also swept through the Hot 100, with three of its singles occupying spots in this week’s top 15: Dua Lipa’s “Dance the Night” (No. 7), Nicki Minaj and Ice Spice’s Aqua-featuring “Barbie World” (No. 8) and Billie Eilish’s “What Was I Made For?” (No. 14). None of them are necessarily on pace to mount a true charge for the top, as the set’s streaming growth has finally stalled in its fourth week, but airplay may still give the songs an extra boost – particularly “Barbie World,” which zooms 33-21 on this week’s Radio Songs chart.