The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the Billboard 200 dated Oct. 4, we look at a pack of new releases, led by Future’s Mixtape Pluto set, which could make him just the second artist this decade to notch three No. 1 albums in a calendar year.  

Future, Mixtape Pluto (Freebandz/Epic): Six months after helping to fire the opening shot that set off the hip-hop World War that was the Kendrick Lamar-Drake feud, with the Lamar-featuring “Like That” single off his and producer co-star Metro Boomin’s first of two We Still Don’t Trust You sets, rap superstar Future is back with his third all-new album of 2024. Mixtape Pluto debuted on Friday (Sept. 20), though with no big-name guests throwing down gauntlets for the rest of the rap world to respond to – no guests of any kind, actually, as the set features Future as the lone credited performer on all 17 of the tracks on its streaming release.  

Nonetheless, the set has performed predictably well on streaming – particularly on Apple Music, where it blanketed the top of the real-time charts upon its Friday release, and still claims the entire top five as of Wednesday. (It’s been a little less prolific on Spotify, where it currently holds just five spots in the entire Daily Top Songs USA top 200, and none in the top 40.) Unlike some other recent Future releases (and despite its mixtape billing), however, this album has the advantage of a physical release to go with it – which is only 11 tracks long, but is available on both CD and vinyl on his webstore and at some brick-and-mortar stores.  

If Future debuts atop the Billboard 200 with Mixtape Pluto, it would mark his eighth consecutive official solo album to do so, dating back to DS2 – as well as his 11th No. 1 album overall, moving him into a five-way tie with Barbra Streisand, Bruce Springsteen, Ye and Eminem for the fourth-most such albums in Billboard 200 history. It would also be his third No. 1 of 2024 alone, after We Don’t Trust You and We Still Don’t Trust You, which would make him just the second artist this decade to score three No. 1 albums in the same calendar year – following (of course) Taylor Swift, who pulled off the achievement in 2021 with Evermore, Fearless (Taylor’s Version) and Red (Taylor’s Version) — and the first to debut three albums there in one year (Evermore having previously topped the chart in 2020).

Katy Perry, 143 (Capitol): It’s been one of the most buzzed-about promo campaigns of 2024, although not always for the best reasons: Katy Perry’s 143 debuts this week after months of lead-up, kicked off by the release of July lead single “Woman’s World,” which drew negative reviews and lasted just one week on the Billboard Hot 100. Subsequent advance tracks were less coldly received but made minimal commercial impact, though Perry’s career-spanning performance while receiving the Video Vanguard award at the MTV Video Music Awards two weeks ago (Sept. 11) was well-received.  

The set is finally out now, and features guest turns from hitmakers 21 Savage, Kim Petras, JID and Doechii, the latter of whom appeared on stage with Perry at the VMAs to perform their Crystal Waters-lifting “I’m His, He’s Mine.” While the set does not appear to be generating any significant streaming hits, it will have the sales advantage of an array of physical releases – with eight vinyl variants (including some retail exclusives, as well as a signed edition exclusive to her d2c), a couple CD variants (including a signed edition exclusive to her d2c and a deluxe-packaging edition with collectible ephemera) and even a cassette.  

Chappell Roan, The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess (KRA/Amusement/Island/Republic): Speaking of the VMAs: One of its other most notable performers and winners is also in the hunt for the No. 1 spot this week. Chappell Roan, who took home best new artist and delivered a memorable medieval performance of standalone single “Good Luck, Babe!” at the ceremonies, recently celebrated the one-year anniversary of her slow-developing blockbuster The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess with a new physical reissue of the set, including multiple new vinyl variants.  

It could be the best chance that the set, which climbed all the way to No. 2 on the Billboard 200 after 20 weeks on the chart, has to get that final boost that it needs to reach No. 1 – though with Future’s combined streaming and sales numbers, it might be a tough week for it to finally get over the top. However, the album has been hanging in the top five for months now, with no real signs that its streaming dominance is coming to an end, so count it out at your own peril.  

IN THE MIX 

Lil Tecca, Plan A (Galactic/Republic): While he hasn’t had a major Hot 100 hit since 2019’s “Ransom,” Lil Tecca has proved himself a fairly reliable performer on streaming in the years since – and scored an impressive slow-burner last year with the “500 Lbs” single. His three official studio albums to date have all bowed around the border of the top 10 (No. 10 for 2020’s Virgo World, No. 10 for 2021’s We Love You Tecca 2 and No. 11 for 2023’s Tec), and this month’s Plan A will likely be shooting for roughly the same range – with strong streaming performance and multiple digital variants available for sale on his webstore, including one digitally signed version and one with two bonus tracks.  

Keith Urban, High (Capitol Nashville / Hit Red): Keith Urban’s first album in four years features the top 20 Country Airplay hit “Messed Up as Me,” and is available in four vinyl variants and three CD variants, including a couple retail exclusives with exclusive branded paper merch. Urban has a streak of eight consecutive top 10 studio albums on the Billboard 200 to protect, a run which dates back to Be Here in 2004.