The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated June 25), a pair of solo singer-songwriters from very different musical backgrounds jockey for the Billboard 200’s top spot, while Morgan Wallen’s 12-week No. 1 still looms large.   

Niall Horan, The Show (Neon Haze/Capital): While Harry Styles currently reigns unquestioned as the biggest star to come out of One Direction, his old bandmate Niall Horan still boasts a sizeable following – and has so far notched two albums in the top five of the Billboard 200, Flicker (2017, No. 1) and Heartbreak Weather (2020, No. 4). He may go three for three with the release of The Show, his third album, led by the advance hit “Heaven,” which gave him his highest-peaking Billboard Hot 100 hit (No. 62) since 2017.  

Without hugely robust streaming totals, he’ll need considerable sales to command the top spot. There’s no shortage of options for fans there: The Show is available in eight deluxe boxed sets containing a CD and branded merch, as well as a signed CD sold through his webstore, a Target-exclusive CD with an alternate cover and a poster packaged inside, a zine CD package sold through his webstore, six vinyl variants (including color variants for Target, Spotify, Urban Outfitters and his webstore) and on cassette. 

His primary challenge may be getting past the same album that proved unmovable for 12 weeks at No. 1 already this year – though not for either of the last two – Morgan Wallen’s One Thing at a Time. Even as it’s fallen to No. 2 the past two weeks, One Thing continues to post over weekly equivalent album units in the six digits, thanks to massive streaming numbers for its 36 tracks. Heartbreak Weather debuted with 59,000 units, so Horan will need a considerable increase for his new set to surpass Wallen.  

Noah Kahan, Stick Season (Republic): If the album title sounds familiar, it may be because we covered it on The Contenders when the album debuted back in October, ultimately bowing at No. 14 on the Billboard 200. Alt-folk singer-songwriter Noah Kahan‘s Stick Season has lingered on the chart in the months since – largely thanks to the viral success of its breakout title track – and jumps from No. 138 to No. 100 this week, likely due to anticipation for its We’ll All Be Here Forever deluxe edition, which debuted on Friday (June 9).  

The reissue includes seven new tracks, all of which have gotten off to a fairly resounding start on streaming services – particularly the TikTok-teased “Dial Drunk,” which has consistently landed in the top five of Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart since its Friday release. And in addition to the boost it should be getting on streaming, the album was also released on vinyl for the first time on Friday, with three vinyl variants available on Kahan’s website and in independent record stores. It should all add up to an unusually kind start to summer for the distinctly cold-weather Stick Season.  

IN THE MIX 

Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit, Weathervanes (Southeastern): Though Isbell and crew aren’t particular fixtures on radio or streaming, they’ve sold enough to hit the Billboard 200’s top 10 with each of their last three original albums – and this time, they have the added promotion of the Running With Our Eyes Closed documentary about the album’s making, which premiered on HBO as part of their Music Box series in April.  

Janelle Monáe, The Age of Pleasure (Wondaland/Bad Boy/Atlantic): Monáe’s first album since 2018’s unanimously acclaimed Dirty Computer eschews that album’s conceptual sci-fi for a more visceral and sensual set of reggae, R&B and Afrobeats jams. The Age of Pleasure has yet to spawn a Hot 100 hit to follow Computer’s “Make Me Feel,” but its carnally minded advance single “Lipstick Lover” has hit the top 20 of Billboard’s Hot R&B Songs chart and attracted a good deal of headlines for its joyfully explicit music video.  

P1Harmony, Harmony: All In (FNC Entertainment): K-pop’s top new release this week comes from six-piece boy band P1Harmony, with their six-track new EP Harmony: All In. As is common with the best-performing Korean pop sets on the Billboard 200, the EP is available in a wide variety of physical packages – including 21 collectible CD variants, with exclusives for retailers including Walmart and Target, and all featuring both standardized merch items and randomized branded mystery items.