The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Nov. 30, we look at whether the longest-running No. 1 of 2024 is about to tie the record the longest-running No. 1 of all-time.  

Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (American Dogwood/EMPIRE/Magnolia Music):  It’s graduation week for “A Bar Song” on the Billboard Hot 100 this week, as its reign on top turns 18. The song is currently also trending toward a 17th week at No. 1 on Radio Songs – while this past week, it logged its 15th week atop the charts simultaneously, a new record for the longest such double-up since Radio Songs began in 1990, passing Mariah Carey’s “We Belong Together.” It has also been top 10 on the Digital Song Sales chart continuously since late April and Streaming Songs since May; it has been top 10 on all three Hot 100 component charts, including Radio Songs, concurrently each week since late June. 

Is there any reason to think it’s due for any big falls or rises before next week, where it goes for its all-time record-tying 19th week at No. 1 – potentially matching Lil Nas X’s Billy Ray Cyrus-featuring “Old Town Road” from five years earlier? Well, it slid more (though not a tremendous amount) this week in both streaming and radio airplay, though its sales were up 16%. The song’s overall momentum going into next week might depend on tonight’s (Nov. 20) CMA Awards, where Shaboozey is both a scheduled performer and a nominee in single of the year (for “Bar Song”) and best new artist.  

With a big, consumption-driving night at the CMAs tonight (and with next week’s charts reflecting consumption for the tracking week ending Thursday), the timing might be right next week for Shaboozey to etch his name in the Billboard history books.  

Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile” (Streamline/Interscope/Atlantic/ICLG): Despite being a full three months into its lifespan at this point, “Die With a Smile” is still gaining chart momentum, as it hits the Radio Songs top five and No. 1 on Pop Airplay — Gaga‘s first time reaching those heights since 2011. The song’s streaming looks to be relatively even with last week, and it’s currently discounted to 69 cents on iTunes – as is “A Bar Song” — so it should be a pretty close battle next week on the Hot 100 between the two. If Shaboozey does get a CMAs bump, can Gaga and Bruno and their respective teams find a way before Friday to get their song a little extra juice? These questions might determine the winner in what should be a very closely monitored Hot 100 race next week.  

Gracie Abrams, “That’s So True” (Interscope/ICLG): After topping Streaming Songs and hitting the Hot 100’s top 10 for the first time this week, “That’s So True” has become the first truly undeniable smash of Gracie Abrams’ career. The song’s streaming growth seems to be slowing this week — so it might not be challenging for No. 1 as soon as next week – but it’s gotten big enough that Abrams’ Interscope label has started to shift its radio promotional efforts (previously focused on “Close to You” and “I Love You, I’m Sorry”) to it. If radio starts to pick up on “True” the way streaming has, there’s probably no ceiling on how high the song can continue to climb for the rest of 2024 and into 2025.  

Mariah Carey, “All I Want for Christmas Is You” (Columbia/Legacy): As the weather cools down, Mariah Carey just starts getting stronger. “All I Want for Christmas Is You” is starting to get its usual seasonal airplay, and jumps from 34 to 21 on this week’s Streaming Songs chart — the highest-ranking holiday entry — and should continue climbing in leaps and bounds in the weeks to come. “All I Want” could rechart on the Hot 100 — maybe even in the top 10 — as soon as next week, and from then it’s only a matter of time before it becomes the frontrunner to reign again during the holiday season, for the sixth calendar year in a row. And if it does… it’s already racked up 14 weeks total at No. 1, so it might not be long until it gets in the all-time record conversation with Lil Nas X and Billy Ray Cyrus (and soon enough, possibly Shaboozey).