On Sept. 27, indie labels and distributors around the world received a letter from Merlin, the coalition that negotiates their licenses with TikTok and other digital services. “With no warning, TikTok walked away before negotiations even began… they do not want to renew our deal, which expires on October 31st,” Merlin’s letter said.

Instead, Merlin explained, TikTok wanted to forge deals with most of the labels and distributors the coalition represented directly, a move that Merlin read as an attempt to “fragment” its membership and “minimize” payments for indie music. (TikTok says it walked away from negotiations with Merlin due to concerns about fraudulent content from certain Merlin members making its way onto the social media app. The company also says it wanted to form closer relationships with Merlin members.)

TikTok and Merlin both declined to comment for this story. 

Since then, 12 different labels and distributors among the thousands represented by Merlin have spoken to Billboard about what they would do when their licenses expire after Halloween. Will the indies walk away, attempting to take a stand against TikTok in solidarity with Merlin? Will they renew their licenses individually? And if they do, how will those deals compare to what Merlin negotiated previously? (Nearly all of the executives who spoke to Billboard for this story requested anonymity, given most of their respective companies have non-disclosure agreements with TikTok.)

At first, one distribution executive said their company was not yet negotiating its own license with TikTok — because this exec said they were still hopeful that Merlin and TikTok might come back to the negotiating table. “We want to make sure there is no possibility with Merlin first,” the executive said. John Carnell, CEO of Phoenix Music International (PMI), had a similar view. In an email to Merlin, obtained by Billboard, Carnell said that while TikTok has approached Phoenix individually, “There is no way we would undermine Merlin’s position.”

Unlike Universal Music Group (UMG), which pulled its entire label and publishing catalog from TikTok earlier this year when its license with the platform expired amid renewal negotiations, antitrust laws prevent Merlin from forcing its members to move off of TikTok. It can’t even ask its members to collectively strike against TikTok, leaving the coalition with little choice but to accept TikTok’s decision.

Carnell ultimately decided PMI would “not be entering a deal with TikTok,” according to his email, but the other executive holdout took a different tack. This week, in a second interview, the executive said their company had decided to sign a direct deal with TikTok after all. “If I still thought that not signing would help Merlin get a new deal, or could help the independent music community, I would try to not sign,” the distribution executive said. “But even when Universal didn’t sign [a licensing deal], [TikTok] didn’t care… We have no choice [but to sign a new licensing agreement] because our artists want to be on TikTok — perhaps too much — but for them, it is very important.”

This is a commonly held sentiment among Merlin members, many of whom say their artists want to be on TikTok, and they need to oblige — or risk losing talent to competitors. In the last week, both UnitedMasters and Ditto announced that they had signed new agreements with TikTok. Steve Stoute, founder and CEO of UnitedMasters, told Billboard, “I believe we struck a fair deal with TikTok for UnitedMasters and our artists, who understand how valuable promotion can be for their reach… Merlin has done a great job representing independent labels across the world, and I am a proud Merlin member.” TikTok says that now the vast majority of Merlin members have signed direct deals with the company.

Multiple members say TikTok offered them new agreements around the time that Billboard broke the news in late September that Merlin’s negotiations with TikTok had collapsed. But not every member received an offer — which tracks, considering TikTok’s claim that fraudulent activity allegedly stemmed from specific members of Merlin. TikTok’s music licenses typically last two years, and most of the new deals offered this October will expire in late 2026.

Three sources say that the compensation terms provided under the new, individual offers from TikTok are not significantly better or worse than what Merlin previously negotiated, but that there have been some key changes. First, TikTok is now paying out music licensors based on views that videos featuring a song receives, rather than “creates” (how many videos are created with a given song in the background).

Specifically, TikTok will calculate market share based on views, and then the payment will be divided up from there. This does not mean TikTok now pays a certain royalty per view. “It makes sense,” says one indie executive. “I don’t know why they didn’t always pay based on views.” Another exec added, “It won’t lead to a major difference in how much we are paid. We are still doing the math, but it seems like there will be about a 4% difference in what we take in from TikTok, give or take.”

“TikTok was always paying us badly, so none of this is a financial problem in the short term,” says the indie label executive who initially wanted to hold out. “They are one of the biggest social media companies in the world, and the smallest revenue earner for a music company.” Another indie label source had a similar feeling. “It’s a promotional avenue more than anything else,” this person said. “I think there’s value in TikTok deals, but it’s, like, 1% of every company’s books. It’s not a big part of anyone’s business. I truly think the royalty conversation wasn’t the deal breaker, but there were other material terms that we wanted.”

One of those key term changes had to do with “ad credits,” which can also be referenced as “marketing credits.” Three sources said that the deals TikTok sent them did not include these credits, which amount to money offered by TikTok that a label can put toward advertisements and marketing on the app. One source says the previous, Merlin-negotiated agreement guaranteed a budget in the millions for ads and marketing on TikTok, with the sum of credits divided among individual members based on their size. Now, at least some labels, particularly the ones with less bargaining power, might not get them at all.

The three sources also said that while the previous contract included a “most favored nations” (MFN) clause, which gives licensors the right to the same terms and benefits as other licensors who enter similar contracts with TikTok, the new agreements did not. One also said their individual agreement included a new clause requiring “know your customer” (KYC) checks — which would require verification of artists’ identities before allowing them to upload songs — something TikTok says is designed to curb bad actors and fraudsters from getting their music on to TikTok. It also serves to place more responsibility on the labels and distributors for the content they deliver. The executive also claimed, however, that the provision’s language is vague and seems difficult to enforce.

Four sources suggested UMG’s previous licensing dispute with TikTok was the catalyst for TikTok to walk away from Merlin. “[UMG] definitely emboldened TikTok,” says one source close to the situation. “They lost that war, and they created a really bad situation for Merlin. Sony and Warner are up next year, too. If I was them, I’d be terrified right now.”

Still, another indie label executive, whose releases run through a Merlin distributor, holds a different view — that, maybe, TikTok is not so important now after all. “We’re sticking with Merlin,” the executive says. “I don’t know what’s going to happen. If this happened a year, two years ago, I’d be freaking out. But these days, TikTok isn’t moving the needle for our artists like it used to.”

While his artists used to “easily get tens of thousands of views on most TikToks without any spend,” he says the social media platform is too “saturated” now, and he’s watched as his artists’ impressions have tanked. He’s not alone. In a recent Billboard story about the modern creator campaign on TikTok, multiple digital marketing sources expressed that it is harder than ever to get a song off the ground on the service. But, as one source put it, “It’s still the best thing we have.”

“But what does not having a deal even mean at this point?” another indie label executive asked. “When these things come down, it just encourages the bootleg use of songs on these platforms. The music will be up, just not properly attributed.” During UMG’s boycott of TikTok earlier this year, it was common to still find Universal songs on the platform, just as bootlegged remixes, not as official audio. Sometimes, to skirt the effects of the boycott, top UMG stars like Olivia Rodrigo would even use these bootlegs to promote their latest releases.

TikTok originally told Merlin members that the deadline to finalize their individual agreements with the service was Oct. 25, but one label executive said they have heard that TikTok has offered extensions to certain members. Three sources believe that smaller Merlin members won’t have room to negotiate past the original boilerplate offer, but the larger players will find more wiggle room. Those who received extensions or finalized deals will not have their music removed from the app today, but TikTok says it has already started removing songs from those members that chose not to strike a deal. The company assures that the vast majority of Merlin members have already cemented their deals. 

“I wish it had worked out differently between Merlin and Tiktok,” one Merlin member says. “But if our partnership needs to be direct with ByteDance in order to serve our clients, then you know, that’s the avenue that we have to take. Only time will tell how this all plays out.”

Additional Reporting by Elias Leight

This story was published as part of Billboard’s music technology newsletter ‘Machine Learnings.’ Sign up for ‘Machine Learnings,’ and Billboard’s other newsletters, here.