On this day last year, the 2023 song of the summer had already hit No. 1.

Morgan Wallen’s “Last Night,” which was released in late January 2023 and reached the top of the Hot 100 that March, turned into a juggernaut last summer, spending 16 non-consecutive weeks at No. 1 last year and easily capturing the top spot of Billboard’s annual Songs of the Summer chart, which runs each year from Memorial Day Weekend to Labor Day Weekend. Sometimes, the Song of the Summer race is an actual race, with multiple songs vying to define the summer season – and other times, we get a “Last Night” year, in which the competition is pretty much wrapped up by the time the Fourth of July fireworks are ringing out.

But however the Song of the Summer race plays out, we’ve seen a consistent theme emerge over the years: the singles that dominate beach season are often released when the weather is frigid. Past Songs of the Summer like Harry Styles’ “As It Was,” Lil Nas X and Billy Ray Cyrus’ “Old Town Road” and Luis Fonsi and Daddy Yankee’s “Despacito” were all released months before the summer actually started – sometimes even before their dominant calendar year. So, even though it’s only early April, it’s worth perusing the current field of summer-song contenders, because the grand champ could very well have already been released.

Presenting our annual way-too-early Song of the Summer breakdown, featuring the current front-runners, the outside shots that could muscle their ways to the top, and the to-be-determined superstar releases right around the corner.